Decisions, Decisions, Decisions: Science vs. Intuition

According to the Oxford Dictionary a decision is "A conclusion or resolution reached after consideration". Decisions form the basis of our day-to-day lives, from the most mundane to the more substantial that require time and effort. As a marketing student, I've been exposed to the importance of effective decision making. Making a good decision can be the difference between survival or failure, especially with the growth of competition and innovation. What I personally find interesting is the argument of scientific versus intuitive decision making.

I first came across this idea during my A-Level studies. Scientific decision making is using logical techniques such as probability and expected value to come to a final decision (Read more here)

The above diagram demonstrates the scientific decision making process. It suggests to start with setting objectives, usually SMART (Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-Based) in order to provide direction and focus. 

The next stage is to gather data which will inform your decision making. This could be primary or secondary data, quantitative or qualitative, all providing different results and lines of inquiry. 

After this stage, the next is to analyse data. This particular process is specific to the type of data collected, as well as the preferred outcome of the business conducting the research. Additionally, it is at the point that the risk of bias is the most prevalent, with data being excluded from the results or statistical analysis being skewed to suit a certain outcome. 

The next stage is to select a method from the research found to achieve the objectives and then to implement this within the organisation. 

Finally, reviewing. This is taking results from the implementation, perhaps in the form of Key Performance Indicators, or other numerical methods, and seeing if they match the objectives. If they do then, it is apparent that the decision has been successful. If not, then there may need to be further research and implementation to make the decision successful. 

It is easy to see why this kind of decision making is favoured. The logical approach allows for decisions to be made sensibly, quickly and in line with objectives. However, this approach does not take into account the gut instinct aspect that a lot of decisions require. There is a certain amount of decision making that can be influenced by this, and arguably some of the most important decisions have been made on instinct. 

The 2016 film, Sully: A Miracle on the Hudson (based on a true story) provides a prime example of instinctive decision making being the difference between life and death. After an unprecedented, catastrophic engine failure, Capt Sullenberger relied on his instinct and years of experience being a pilot, and decided to land the failing plane on the Hudson. Initially, during the investigation it was ruled that the plane would have managed to land back at the airport, causing great concern about Sully's ability as a pilot. However, as more simulations were ran, with more realistic conditions it was concluded that he had in fact made the right decision. If it wasn't for instinctive flight or fight, those people on the plane would not have survived. 

This example really does prove that intuitive decision making can be really important. Perhaps, it is a mixture of the two that can create the most effective decision making. Whilst a decision looks good on paper, it doesn't always mean that it will actually produce the desired results. 

What do you think?